Stocks in the automotive, financial, cement, metal, and hotel sectors are likely to benefit if the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) comes back to power for a third time. The key investment themes have been identified after analysing the Sankalp Patra - the party's manifesto for the next five years - released on Sunday.
India's appetite for imported crude oil may wane in fiscal year (FY) 2023 from record levels in pre-pandemic 2019-20 fiscal as higher oil prices, a spillover from the conflict in Ukraine, and increasing use of biofuels affect domestic demand for petroleum products. Brent crude surged to a nine-year high, shy of a July 2008 record $147.50 a barrel, before declining to around $100 a barrel - but the volatility in commodity rates will slow global economic growth and use of fuels. Demand for all oil products may grow at only 2-3 per cent in FY23, slower than the current fiscal and nearly half the 5.5 per cent growth estimated by the petroleum ministry, according to industry officials.
India's imports from Russia rose by about 67 per cent to $30.42 billion during the April-September period this fiscal on higher shipments of crude oil and fertiliser, according to the commerce ministry data. With this, Russia has become India's second-largest import source during the first half of this fiscal. The imports were $18.24 billion during April-September 2022.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has decided to cut its daily oil production by about 2 million barrels. OPEC's daily output target is 27.3 million barrels.
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International oil prices have hit a six-month low, helping Indian fuel retailers breakeven on petrol but they continue to lose money on diesel - the most used fuel in the country, officials said. The world's best-known crude benchmark, Brent was trading at $94.91 per barrel on Thursday after concerns of a global recession led to it slipping to a six-month low of $91.51 on the previous day. The current rates are a relief to India, which is 85 per cent dependent on imports for meeting its oil needs.
The NSE Nifty after shuttling between 10,397.60 and 10,279.35 points, ended 47 points, or 0.45 per cent lower at 10,301.05.
Suddenly, demand-supply mismatch is no longer offered as the standard plausible explanation.
Indian consumers and oil companies are losing out because buying remains a government monopoly.
The world's third largest energy firm BP Plc has rubbished India's claims that oil speculators are responsible for a global surge in crude oil prices, saying high prices were a result of production struggling to keep pace with the demand.
World oil prices hit fresh two-year highs Friday as US Secretary of State Colin Powell forecast that within two weeks there will be a persuasive case that Iraq is not cooperating with UN weapons inspectors.
Oil billionaire T Boone Pickens has predicted that crude oil will touch $150 soon. And he also says the one commodity that will grow bigger than oil is natural gas. In the last one year, natural gas prices across the world, especially in the US, UK and Russia have more than doubled.
India on Thursday described as 'matter of serious concern' reports that said some members of the Indian community in Canadian province of British Columbia received 'extortion calls'.
Reliance Industries Ltd, India's most valuable company, on Friday reported a 5 per cent drop in its June quarter net profit as lower fuel cracks and petrochemical margins outdid gains in telecom and retail businesses. The oil-to-retail-to-telecom conglomerate's consolidated net profit was at Rs 15,138 crore, or Rs 22.37 per share, in April-June -- the first quarter of the current 2023-24 fiscal year -- compared to Rs 16,011 crore, or Rs 23.66 a share, earnings a year back, according to a company's statement.
When S Jaishankar became India's external affairs minister in May 2019, he was largely considered a political lightweight despite his undisputed mastery over foreign policy.
Exports contracted by 2.6 per cent to $34.47 billion in September even as the country's merchandise trade deficit narrows to $19.37 billion during the month under review, according to the government data released on Friday. Easing commodity prices helped in cutting down the country's import bill by 15 per cent to $53.84 billion in September, the 10th consecutive month of decline. During April-September this fiscal, exports contracted by 8.77 per cent to $211.4 billion.
Ukraine and Russia need to engage with each other to find a solution to the ongoing conflict between them, India said on Friday after Prime Minister Narendra Modi held wide-ranging talks with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv under the shadow of the raging war.
India, the world's third-largest energy consumer and importer, on Wednesday warned of high oil prices hurting the nascent and fragile global economic recovery and floated an idea of long-term supply contracts that provide predictable and stable pricing. Speaking at the India Energy Forum by CERAWeek, Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said there was a mismatch between demand for oil and the supplies producers such as OPEC+ were making and there was a case for raising the production. The world, he said, needs "predictable, stable and affordable" prices for it to recover back to pre-pandemic levels.
Estimated to cost $44 billion, the project was expected to be commissioned by 2025.
An influential Republican senator has asked India to "just quit" buying oil from sanctions-hit Iran.
Moscow-based OAO Rosneft Chairman Igor Ivanovich Sechin said the agreement was to ship by sea as much as 10 million tons of oil per year to Essar Group.
As the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer, India is running out of options as the relentless surge in international oil prices make it imperative to pass them on to consumers, officials said on Monday. India imports 85 per cent of its crude oil needs and about half of its natural gas requirement. While the imported crude oil is turned into fuels such as petrol and diesel, gas is used as CNG in automobiles and fuel in factories.
The President said he made the decision in consultation with European allies but added they may not be in a position to join the US in banning Russian energy imports.
India's demand for petroleum products like petrol and diesel will grow by 7.73 per cent in 2022, the fastest pace in the world, an OPEC report said. India's demand for oil products is projected to rise from 4.77 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 5.14 million bpd in 2022, OPEC said in its monthly oil report. The growth in demand is the fastest in the world ahead of 1.23 per cent of China, 3.39 per cent of the US and 4.62 per cent of Europe.
Skittish investors snapped up gold and other safe-haven assets amid fears of a global economic slowdown
India's merchandise exports rose by 9.1 per cent to $38.13 billion in May even as the trade deficit widened to a seven-month high of $23.78 billion during the month, according to government data. Healthy growth in sectors, such as engineering, electronics, pharmaceuticals, textiles and plastics helped register growth in exports despite global economic uncertainties.
Reliance Industries Ltd on Friday reported a 9 per cent rise in its December quarter net profit as a planned maintenance-induced weakness in oil business earnings was offset by stability in retail and telecom verticals. The oil-to-retail-to-telecom conglomerate's consolidated net profit of Rs 17,265 crore, or Rs 25.52 per share, in October-December - the third quarter of the current 2023-24 fiscal - was 9.3 per cent higher than Rs 15,792 crore, or Rs 23.19 a share, earning a year back, according to a company statement. Quarter-on-quarter, the profit was lower when compared to Rs 17,394 crore earnings in the preceding three months ended September 30.
A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive because it raises the cost for imports for most of the world's countries
Experts say local demand, government policies in retail and refining sector are attracting foreign players.
Usually, a fall in oil prices is followed with a cut in retail prices of auto fuels and the government passes on the benefit to consumers. However, Morgan Stanley believes gains this time around will remain capped.
Russia has welcomed India's decision to not support the price cap on Russian oil announced by G7 and its allies and offered it cooperation on leasing and building large-capacity ships to overcome the ban on insurance services and tanker chartering in the European Union and Britain to continue buying discounted oil. The offer came as Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak held a meeting with the Indian Ambassador to Moscow, Pavan Kapoor, on Friday. "The Deputy Prime Minister welcomed India's decision not to support the price cap on Russian oil, which was imposed on December 5 by the G7 countries and their allies," the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi met two Kuwaiti nationals who translated and published India's two iconic epics, Mahabharata and Ramayana in Arabic during his two-day visit to Kuwait. Modi, who praised their work, said it highlights the popularity of Indian culture globally. His visit to Kuwait is the first by an Indian prime minister in 43 years.
Equity benchmarks shrugged off lacklustre global cues to clock smart gains on Tuesday, buoyed by strong buying interest in index heavyweights Reliance Industries and HDFC twins. However, a depreciating rupee and unabated foreign fund outflows capped the gains, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex rallied 562.75 points or 0.94 per cent to settle at 60,655.72.
Sri Lanka on Thursday signed an agreement with India to jointly redevelop the strategic World War II-era oil tank farm in the island nation's eastern port district of Trincomalee, in a new milestone in bilateral economic and energy partnership.
The sharp rally in the midcap stocks has made valuations expensive, and there is room for a correction, wrote Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies in his latest note to investors, GREED & fear. The midcap index, Wood said, now trades at 24.1x 12-month forward earnings compared with 18.7x for the Nifty. Rising crude oil prices, he believes, are another worry for India, which imports nearly 80 per cent of its annual crude oil requirement.
The 16th Brics Summit beginning Tuesday in Kazan, Russia, is expected to see more focus on creating a sharper energy policy for Brics that ensures closer partnership among members in both energy security and energy transition, official sources said. The same is expected to be a part of the Kazan declaration, currently being negotiated, they added.
Without naming India, S&P said it expects that in regions where inflation already exceeds targets, or which are vulnerable to capital flight, central banks will be forced to raise interest rates.
Ahead of a meeting of oil producers' cartel OPEC, India on Tuesday said the current oil prices are "very challenging" and rates need to be a "little bit sober" lest they impact a consumption-led recovery of the global economy. Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, who last week again urged OPEC to phase out its production cuts, said India is a price-sensitive market and it will buy oil wherever it gets competitive rates. The rebound in international oil prices from lows hit last month on the back of demand recovery has led to a spike in petrol and diesel retail prices in India.
Asian Paints, HUL, TCS, Tech Mahindra, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement were among the top laggards in the Sensex pack.
Saturday's Quad meeting in Delaware is taking place against the backdrop of China's assertive behaviour in the South China Sea, its sabre-rattling in the Taiwan Strait and increasing footprints in the Pacific and Indian Ocean, asserts Rup Narayan Das.
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